Greater Houston Market | North Houston Perspective
Houston entered fall with a housing market that can best be described as balanced, selective and negotiation-oriented. Buyers have considerably more choice. Sellers can still succeed — but pricing, condition and presentation matter more. And for many buyers, the biggest question isn't simply the price of the home. It's the monthly payment.
Updated September 29, 2026 — Latest completed HAR data covers August 2026.
Houston Market at a Glance
Based on the latest completed Houston Association of REALTORS® market data — August 2026
Single-Family Homes Sold
Down 11.5% vs. August 2025
Median Sales Price
Down a modest 1.5% year-over-year
Active Listings
Substantially more choice for buyers
Months of Inventory
Single-family housing supply
Avg. Days on Market
Up from 52 days one year earlier
Pending Sales
Down 3.5% vs. August 2025
Average single-family sales price: $426,760
What the Latest Numbers Tell Us
Houston's housing market isn't frozen. But buyers are behaving more selectively. Higher inventory gives buyers more opportunity to compare across multiple dimensions simultaneously.
What Buyers Are Comparing
- Price, condition and location
- Property taxes and insurance
- Monthly payments
- Resale properties vs. new construction
- Available financing programs
What the Numbers Mean
Homes averaged 54 days on market, compared with 52 days one year earlier.
For sellers, that increases the importance of competing effectively from day one.
For buyers, it creates more time to evaluate whether a property actually makes sense.
Through August, Greater Houston single-family closings were essentially flat year to date compared with the same period in 2025. Houston hasn't stopped buying homes — affordability, elevated inventory and buyer selectivity are affecting when and what people purchase. That's a much different story from a broad market collapse.
Mortgage Rates Are Back in the Spotlight
30-Year Fixed Rate
Freddie Mac — September 24, 2026
15-Year Fixed Rate
Freddie Mac — September 24, 2026
30-Year Rate One Year Ago
September 2025 — for comparison
Actual Financing Varies Based On:
- Credit score and down payment
- Loan program and lender
- Points, property type and borrower qualifications
These are national survey averages — not guaranteed rates for an individual Houston buyer. Work with actual loan scenarios rather than relying solely on a headline rate.
7.03%
30-year fixed — first time above 7% since January 2025
The Monthly Payment Matters More Than the Headline Rate
Mortgage principal and interest are only part of the cost of owning a Houston-area home. A home can have an attractive purchase price and still produce a payment that doesn't fit comfortably into the buyer's budget.
Principal & Interest
The mortgage payment most buyers focus on — but only part of the complete picture.
Property Taxes
Texas property tax rates vary significantly by community and MUD district. Verify the actual rate before evaluating affordability.
Insurance Costs
Homeowners insurance, flood insurance where applicable — both must be included in the real monthly cost.
HOA & District Fees
HOA dues, MUD charges and other utility-district costs where applicable can add meaningfully to the monthly obligation.
The complete payment is what matters. A financing incentive can reduce the initial payment without necessarily reducing the long-term cost of ownership.
Should Buyers Wait for Lower Rates?
The Question Buyers Are Asking
"When will rates come down?"
Nobody knows with certainty where mortgage rates will go next. A home purchase shouldn't depend on a future rate reduction.
If rates eventually decline, additional buyers could return to the market and increase competition — eliminating some of the negotiating advantage available today.
And refinancing, while possible, is never guaranteed.
The Better Question
"Does this home and payment work for me under today's terms?"
If today's payment works comfortably and the property makes sense, a future refinance may become an option if rates later make the numbers worthwhile.
The decision framework should be built on today's numbers, not a projected future rate.
Why New Construction Deserves a Close Look This Fall
New construction remains an important part of the conversation throughout many North Houston communities. Builders can compete differently from individual resale sellers.
Financing Incentives
Mortgage-rate buydowns, closing-cost assistance and flex cash can create meaningful value — but must be evaluated carefully against the complete transaction.
Home Incentives
Design-center credits, included upgrades, appliance packages and lot-premium incentives vary by builder, home and program.
Evaluate the Full Picture
The headline incentive number doesn't tell you whether the incentive actually produces the best transaction. The largest advertised incentive isn't necessarily the best one.
Temporary Rate or Permanent Rate?
This distinction is particularly important when evaluating builder financing programs.
Permanent Rate Buydown
Some builder financing programs offer a permanently reduced fixed rate for the life of the loan. The payment stays the same from month one.
Temporary Buydown (e.g. 2-1 or 3-2-1)
The buyer's effective payment is reduced during the early years before eventually increasing to the regular contractual rate. Useful when understood — dangerous when not.
The danger comes from evaluating affordability using only the promotional payment. Before purchasing, the buyer should know:
What will my regular payment eventually become? And does that payment fit my budget from the beginning?
How to Compare a Builder Incentive
Don't stop at "How much is the incentive?" — compare what the incentive actually does to the complete transaction.
Financing
Is the rate temporary or permanent? What are the points, lender fees and APR? What happens to the payment later? How does the builder's lender compare with an outside lender?
Cash to Close & Home Price
Would closing-cost assistance provide more practical value than upgrades? Is the incentive attached to a higher purchase price?
Upgrades & Inclusions
What is actually included in the home, and what remains an additional cost? Understand the full scope before comparing options.
Deadlines & Restrictions
Does the incentive require a particular contract or closing date? Does it require an affiliated lender or title company?
The most useful incentive is the one that improves the buyer's complete financial picture.
Completed & Quick Move-In Homes: Two Paths to New Construction
Quick Move-In Homes
Completed inventory the builder wants to sell as year-end approaches. Buyers may find opportunities involving financing, closing costs, included upgrades, appliances, lot premiums or pricing.
But don't assume every completed home automatically comes with additional negotiating room. Ask:
- How long has the home been available?
- Has the price changed?
- Which upgrades are already included?
- Which incentives apply specifically to this home?
- What deadline applies?
To-Be-Built Homes
More opportunity to select the homesite, floor plan and finishes — but different considerations apply:
- Construction timing and deposits
- Change orders and appraisal changes
- Rate-lock and financing deadlines
- Incentive expiration
- Timing of a current lease or home sale
These are two different paths to purchasing new construction and shouldn't be evaluated exactly the same way.
Don't Skip New-Construction Due Diligence
The model home is where the conversation begins. It isn't where the investigation ends.
Understand the Contract
Builder contracts, deposit and cancellation provisions, estimated completion timing, change-order policies, warranty coverage, financing requirements and incentive restrictions all deserve careful review.
Consider Independent Inspections
Phase inspections during construction, a final inspection and an appropriate warranty inspection can identify issues before they become problems. Don't rely solely on the builder's own process.
Evaluate the Community, Not Just the House
Future phases, schools, roads, commercial development, drainage, amenities, closing-date flexibility and surrounding inventory all matter to long-term value and livability.
What September Means for Buyers
Today's market can give financially prepared buyers something valuable: time and choice.
Potential Negotiating Opportunities
- Repairs and closing-cost assistance
- Financing assistance
- Included items
- Closing timelines
The goal isn't simply to negotiate something. It's to purchase the right property under terms that make financial sense.
Be Especially Careful When...
- The payment works only during a temporary promotional period
- Closing would leave very little cash in reserve
- Property taxes haven't been verified
- Insurance costs haven't been investigated
- Flood and drainage considerations haven't been reviewed
- Utility-district costs haven't been included
The advertised payment isn't necessarily the cost of ownership.
What September Means for Sellers
Fall generally brings a slower seasonal environment than the peak spring and summer months — and buyers have substantial inventory to compare. In many suburban Houston markets, a resale seller may also be competing against new construction.
The Challenge
Accurate pricing and strong presentation are particularly important. Buyers have more options and more time to evaluate them.
Sellers who don't price and present effectively from the beginning will find themselves at a meaningful disadvantage.
Advantages an Existing Home Offers
- Mature trees and established landscaping
- Completed fencing and window coverings
- Appliances and finished outdoor spaces
- Established amenities and community
- Proximity to existing schools and services
- Immediate occupancy
Those features have real value. They need to be visible in the marketing and reflected appropriately in the price.
North Houston Is Not One Housing Market
Greater Houston's 5.3 months of inventory gives us useful context — but it doesn't tell us exactly what's happening at the community level.
North Houston Communities
Spring · Klein · Tomball · The Woodlands · Conroe · Magnolia · Willis · Kingwood · Humble · New Caney · Porter · Montgomery · FM 249 corridor · FM 1488 corridor
Why Individual Markets Differ
Price range, property type, inventory levels, builder activity, taxes, school demand, commute patterns, insurance costs, flood and drainage considerations and community development all shape local conditions.
Even Within the Same City
Individual communities can behave differently. A metro market report should start the conversation. The property-level numbers should finish it.
Seven Questions Worth Asking This Fall
What is actually competing with this property?
Look at active listings, recent sales, pending activity and new construction.
Am I comparing resale with completed new construction or a future build?
Those are different transactions with different timelines and risks.
What happens after the promotional payment ends?
Know the regular payment before signing.
What is included in the advertised price?
Understand homesite premiums, options, upgrades and post-closing costs.
What will taxes and insurance do to the payment?
Don't evaluate affordability using principal and interest alone.
What should I know about the community?
Consider future phases, schools, roads, drainage, amenities and surrounding inventory.
What protections and deadlines are in the contract?
Understand inspections, financing, appraisal, deposits and closing requirements.
What I'm Watching on the Ground
Broad Houston statistics tell only part of the story. What happens inside individual North Houston communities can move much faster. As I tour homes and communities throughout the area, these are the things I continually watch:
Completed Builder Inventory
Are finished homes accumulating, moving quickly or receiving new incentives?
Builder Incentives
Are builders emphasizing financing, closing costs, upgrades, lot incentives or price adjustments?
Homesites
Which lots remain available, and what premiums are builders attaching to them?
Community Expansion
What new phases, roads, amenities, schools and commercial development are planned?
Resale Competition
How does an existing home compare with what a buyer can purchase new nearby?
The Complete Monthly Cost
How do taxes, insurance, HOA fees, utility-district costs and financing affect real affordability?
September Takeaway
Houston entered fall with a balanced, selective and negotiation-oriented housing market.
For Buyers
More choices. More time to evaluate. The most useful approach is comparing the entire transaction: home + community + financing + taxes + insurance + incentives + monthly payment + long-term plans.
For Sellers
More competition. Accurate pricing, strong preparation and a clear understanding of the alternatives available to today's buyer are the path to a successful sale.
The Bottom Line
The headline tells us what's happening across Houston. The property-level analysis tells us what it means for you.
Planning a Move to North Houston?
Whether you're relocating to Houston, comparing new construction with resale, or trying to determine which North Houston community fits your plans — we can look beyond the metro headline and evaluate the numbers that apply to your move.
This September update was prepared September 29, 2026. Finalized September 2026 Houston closing statistics were not yet available at publication; the latest completed HAR market data covers August 2026. Mortgage rates, builder incentives, prices and market conditions can change. This report provides general real estate market information and is not individualized lending, tax, legal, insurance or investment advice. Buyers and sellers should obtain current property-specific information and appropriate professional guidance.
Terrel D. Terrell, REALTOR®
eXp Realty LLC
License # 723700
1 Riverway Dr Ste 1700, Houston, TX 77056
Phone: (281) 701-3413
September 2026 Houston Real Estate Market Update